Don't forget the risk of the pension exceeding the lifetime allowance. At the moment the government has said that it's going to be index linked (CPI I think) but a few years of high inflation and the government removing the index linking of LTA and you could be in trouble)
You are right that if there's zero chance of exceeding the lifetime allowance and you can guarantee to take the pension at basic rate and basic rate tax doesn't go up then pension wins. But that's a lot of ifs. Quite frankly I'm expecting the 25% tax free lump sum to disappear too soon, I just hope I'm close enough to retirement age not to lose it!
Also consider the possibility that you want to access the money before retirement - there is no chance with a pension. IMO you give up a lot if all you are getting is basic rate tax relief on the contributions.
On the delaying payments, I don't think you do lose. You will get basic rate relief this year or basic rate relief next year. In fact some suggestions I've seen are that everybody should get 30% relief rather than the 25% for a basic rate payer and 67% for a higher rate taxpayer. Were that to pass then delaying would win.
The numbers the OP was quoting I don't think there's any chance of them continuing to pay in at that rate unless they've won the lottery or something. The OP is talking about paying 40K of a 60K income. I don't think many people on 60K a year can afford to save 40K every year into a pension.
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