Postby etf » Wed Sep 18, 2024 9:28 pm
I'm less optimistic about HMRC waking up.
By kevinringer
18th Sep 2024 10:28
HMRC want MTD because HMRC thinks it will close the tax gap. There's 2 aspects to this:
1. What is the tax gap?
2. Will MTD close it?
Thoughts:
1. When SA started we were told HMRC would undertake 1-2% random enquiries annually just to check the SA system is working. HMRC also undertook other specific full and aspect enquiries. These all fed into statistics which enabled HMRC to estimate the tax gap. That was in 1990s and early 2000s. I've not had an enquiry for many years and speaking to other practitioners, they too have had either none, or very few enquiries. That tells me that any 'tax gap' figures compiled by HMRC are no longer based on real world data. I am increasingly of the opinion that the tax gap is assumptions based on assumptions which are as accurate as random figures plucked from the air.
2. MTD VAT did not close the VAT gap - see https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/tax/personal-tax/mtd-fails-to-reduce-the.... If MTD VAT failed, on what basis does HMRC think MTD ITSA will succeed?
If that isn't compelling enough, see https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps/4-tax-gaps-i... figure 4.1. MTD was announced after a period of increases in the tax gap which peaked at 5.4%. But since then the tax gap has decreased and the most recent year it was 3.0% which is the lowest for 20 years. So even if MTD ITSA did close the mythical tax gap, it will be closing the smallest tax-gap for 20+ years, which means the saving will be the smallest, so the return on investment will be smaller than was envisaged when MTD was announced in 2015, and at the same time the cost of MTD has increased - see https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/progress-with-making-tax-digital/. The original cost of £226 million was to close a 5.4% tax gap compared to the 2023 estimate cost of £1.3 billion to close a 3.0% tax gap. That a 2023 cost/benefit of £433 million per 1% compared to 2015 cost/benefit of £42 million. In effect the cost/benefit has reduced by a factor of 10 over the last 10 years. Even HMRC has to wake up at some time and recognise their MTD vanity project is not worth it.